The BOJ is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to a fresh three-decade high, a CNBC survey shows.
By Nexvoro Tech Wire
PUBLISHED WED, SEP 16, 2026 3:35 AM UTC • 6 MIN READ
Primary Journalistic Dispatch & Direct Reporting
The Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates to 1.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday amid inflationary pressures, according to a CNBC survey.
A hike would signal an acceleration of the tightening cycle, faster than the six-month interval the Bank has been following since it started policy normalization in March 2024. The BOJ last raised rates in June.
Around 89% of respondents said they expect the BOJ to hike by 25 basis points, citing higher inflation, higher wages, and pressure from the U.S. government.
In-Depth Developments & Factual Context
Japan's headline inflation rate for July hit its highest this year, at 1.9%, due to increased energy costs from the Iran war. In the same month, real wages rose 2.4%, rising for the seventh month in a row.
The U.S. has been vocal about Japan continuing its rate-hiking cycle, pressuring Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's preference for an easy monetary policy and an expansionary fiscal policy. Most recently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to take "decisive market and monetary steps" at the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting earlier this month. The U.S. favors a stronger yen, as a weak one could cause Japan to sell U.S. assets, including Treasurys, to shore up its currency. Such a move could push Treasury yields even higher. In late July, the two sides conducted a historic joint intervention to strengthen the yen.
"The Trump administration has effectively checked any potential move by a Takaichi administration to block the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates," said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute and former BOJ policy board member. "Consequently, the Bank of Japan has gained a free hand to proceed with rate hikes."
Industry Impact & Strategic Analysis
BOJ board members have also made hawkish comments, leaving open the possibility of accelerated rate hikes.
The CNBC survey was conducted Sept. 9-14 among 18 economists and analysts.
Asked which BOJ board members are most likely to dissent on a hike, around a third of respondents named Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato. Both are seen as reflationists and were appointed by Takaichi earlier this year.
Forward Outlook & Market Perspective
As for the yen, around 61% of respondents said they expect it to trade between 155 and 160 in the next month.
Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, said the BOJ's hawkish shift will help keep the yen stronger than 160. But appreciating it past 150 "will not be easy" because government and business officials will push back against "inappropriately" fast currency appreciation, he said.
- CNBC's Lim Hui Jie and Sri Jegarajah contributed to this report.
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