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That Patrick Mahomes is returning from a knee injury which put the final nail in the Chiefs ' 2025 season adds some intrigue against a Broncos team that might have been an injury to their own quarterback away from making the Super Bo wl.
Despite Kansas City's down year, and Denver's status as the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season, the betting market is still favoring the Chiefs, even before a couple points have been applied for a Monday night in Arrowhead.
Let's start with a low-level anthropological study of sharp sports bettors.
If at any point after this line opened in mid-May, you officially decided to bet on the Broncos, and saw the line at +2.5, so close to the key number of +3, with a popular team known to take money like the Chiefs, why wouldn't you wait all summer long to see if bookmakers felt compelled to bump it up to +3?
It's entirely possible that we're all sitting around waiting to make a bet on the Broncos at the best number available, and if we're all trying to be patient, then there isn't enough Denver money coming in to move this game closer to pick-em.
On the field, if any quarterback is coming back from a significant knee injury (or even if one that isn't), you might expect the betting market would think it's crucial that his blindside is adequately protected. Yet, last week's news of left tackle Josh Simmons being out for Monday night, with a rookie starting in his place, still didn't trigger a move towards the Broncos. Again, potentially, because we're all waiting for +3.
Bet the Denver Broncos to cover the spread at sportsbooks
When Mahomes went down last season, the Chiefs weren't better than the Broncos. And with a defensive front that can take advantage of Simmons' absence and stuff Kansas City's alleged commitment to a run game with Kenneth Walker , Kansas City isn't better than Denver now.
If this game doesn't drift down to pick-em by kickoff, I'll be surprised, as that would be a mistake.
DENVER, CO - AUGUST 21: Denver Broncos wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs after a catch in the first quarter during a preseason game between the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on August 21, 2026 in Denver, Colorado.
We didn't mention the matchup of the Broncos' offense against the Chiefs defense, because we were saving that handicap for our player prop section. Denver made a point to go out and get Jaylen Waddle, and I'll be shocked if Sean Payton doesn't make a point to use him constantly this season to take even more pressure off of Bo Nix.
Two quality corners went from the Chiefs to the Rams in the offseason, and that's probably a necessary move in the long term for Kansas City to manage its salary cap. However, hoping first-round pick Mansoor Delane plays at a high level from Game 1, and that L'Jarius Sneed turns back the clock the second time around in K.C. seems perilous in a tough matchup. Especially, with a pass-rush mitigated by one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Here's a derivative way to play on a shaky performance from Mahomes, coming off of injury and with a rookie protecting his blind side. Also, the Chiefs still haven't answered a lack of explosiveness and depth in their receiving corps, and Patrick Surtain II should have his usual one-half of the field locked down.
Through thick-and-thin last season, Brashard Smith was a pet props project of ours over at THE WINDOW, as a quasi-gadget player out of the Chiefs' backfield, capable of turning a few touches into big plays.
Before Mahomes' injury, Smith had at least three touches in a six-of-seven game stretch. In this second season, more should be on Smith's plate for an offense that he was added to late in the 2025 draft because it has lacked explosiveness.
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