Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq extend losses as bond yields jump, oil holds above $100

Primary Journalistic Dispatch & Direct Reporting

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) fell 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) dropped 0.5%, with all three indexes deepening losses from the past three days.

Stocks have cooled this week as oil prices topped $105 per barrel after Iran targeted US Navy warships in the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict. The move higher in oil has helped support rising Treasury yields. The 10-year yield ( ^TNX ) hit a three-year high on Wednesday after the Treasury Department announced it would buy up to $6 billion in longer-term debt.

President Trump said Wednesday that oil prices may not come down until after the midterm elections two months away. The ongoing US-Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns that an energy shock could flow into broader inflation and all but force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

In-Depth Developments & Factual Context

On Thursday, wholesale inflation data showed producer prices rose on a monthly and yearly basis, largely in line with expectations, setting the stage for the government's consumer inflation report, due out Friday. The Producer Price Index rose 5.4% year-on-year, and 4.6% on a core basis.

Investors are also considering a proposal Trump floated in Dallas on Wednesday to send every American adult a $5,000 check if the Republicans keep control of Congress in the midterm elections. It's not clear how Trump would implement such a costly measure, as Congress would need to approve it.

After the bell, Oracle ( ORCL ) is expected to report earnings, offering a reality check on AI capital expenditures and demand.

Industry Impact & Strategic Analysis

Mortgage rates crossed 7% for the first time in over a year as rising oil prices, hot wholesale inflation, and a promise from President Trump to give $5,000 to every adult if Republicans maintain control of Congress in November heightened an ongoing bond market selloff.

Rates on Thursday averaged 7.07%, according to Mortgage News Daily, a 10 basis-point jump from a day earlier.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely track, surged 8 basis points on Thursday to more than 4.9%, reaching new multi-year highs.

Forward Outlook & Market Perspective

Treasury yields, and mortgage rates, have experienced heightened volatility in recent days, with the 10-year yield rising more than 12 basis points in less than a week. The Treasury Department attempted to tamp down yields with bigger bond buybacks, but the effort made little difference.

Crypto's most popular derivative has officially made its way to US-regulated precious metal markets.

Kalshi said Thursday it has officially launched perpetual futures contracts tied to gold and silver following approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Wednesday.

Perpetual futures, or "perps," allow traders to make leveraged bets on an asset's price without an expiration date.

Unlike traditional futures, traders can maintain their position indefinitely instead of periodically rolling into a new contract. That's seen as more efficient and cost-effective for assets without clear expiration dates like bitcoin and ether.

These products have already earned some credit from Wall Street for how their offshore versions helped lead Wall Street's pricing, including during the outbreak of the US war with Iran in March and ahead of SpaceX's banner IPO in June. But how much these speculative instruments threaten the US futures market's most powerful incumbents, including CME ( CME ), Cboe ( CBOE ), and the New York Stock Exchange parent company Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE ) remains an open question.

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